Penny Anderson she's a management analyst of the office of performance and and performance and Analysis at Dakota County she's been doing this for 23 years with Dakota County she also has worked with 360 communities so a nice overlap there and has a lot of amazing credentials to her name but these this presentation like I said I've seen it a few times and it's just very eye openening to continue to watch and see how roson is changing how Dakota county is changing and what those impacts are going to mean for all of us in the next number of years so thank you for being here todayy hey thanks for having me so as she said I'm with the office of performance and Analysis Z as Opa and our role in the county is to serve the residents the Departments and the Community Partners by developing analyzing and evaluating information to improve Dakota County's programs and services so I'm here today to share demographic and economic Trends most of the data is at the county level but I am including some Rosemount specific information where possible so feel free to interrupt along the way with questions if you'd like there you can ask questions at the end as well but feel free to interrupt along the way so today we're going to cover population characteristics housing and socioeconomic indicators so according to the Minnesota state photographer both penipen and Ramsey counties are projected to decline in population over the next few decades Dakota County shown in dark blue here is currently the third largest county in Minnesota however in just over a decade in 2036 Dakota County population is projected to become the second largest county in the state surpassing Ry County and in 2047 a NOA county is also supposed to surp is projected to surpass Ry county to become the third largest county in the state so the 2023 population of Dakota County which is the latest data from the Census Bureau is 447,000 and is projected to reach over 566,000 by 2055 we have new numbers in March so where is this change coming from so here you see from 2022 to 2023 that we had a natural increase of 1950 that's births minus deaths and a net migration of 2235 and a residual of a -7 to account for our 4,168 population change the residual is just the population change that cannot be attributed to any specific demograph so Dakota County experienced a natural increase with more births and deaths and also experience a positive net migration with more people moving into the county than moving out so here you see it by age the light blue lines are 2020 the Golden Rod color I'm sorry I don't have really good I have a little bit of color blindness so I'm not sure what we're going to call that color but I'm going to call it golden um is 2050 so if you take a look at the three oldest age groups that's 75 to 79 80 to 84 and 85 Plus that's where you I mean there's increases in almost every population with a couple exceptions those are really spiking up and the impact of that is that as soon as possibly 2030 the working age population ages 18 to 64 is anticipated to decrease 3% as the 65 plus population is increasing 4% and race and ethnicity we are projected to grow in diversity the Dakota County white not Hispanic population is expected to decrease from 75% in 2055 down to 59% in 2055 language 13 and a half% of Dakota County residents speak a language other than English at home but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're limited English speaking households some of those speak English very well and only 5.5% speak English less then very well the Census Bureau defines limited english- speaking household say households where no one in the household 14 and over speaks English only over speaks English only or speaks English very well so the actual question on the American Community survey asks how well the respondent in each household member speaks English with answers of very well well not well and not at all so that means that somebody that answered well but didn't respond very well would be considered limited English so it might be overemphasized on that on the flip side it doesn't include the 14 and under so it's under County that part so so within this 5.5% of Dakota County households are considered limited English-speaking households and unfortunately the Census Bureau doesn't allow us to see the data more gr the top five primary languages of limited english- speaking household are Spanish Vietnamese French Arabic and la so here's a question for you which ones are you surprised isn't there in the top five fren I think you said it Somali Somali Sali would be number six but he actually a really high numbers and then there's a drop report Sali so they must be catching up on language the um by far the highest limited english- speaking population is a Spanish or Hispanic group Steve's comment on the French this interesting of like why is that odd to you that that spikes number three like what what might that mean for for how that happened you know I thought that was odd and every time I've seen this I've never looked into it any deeper but I think I don't even know that many French people so aren't there African countries is yeah that is probably the answer Lisa get bonus there you go Lisa extra cook I would say that also Vietnamese by French oh that's interesting I don't know if you heard what he said that a majority of Somali speak Arabic so they would be a the the colonization of Vietnam and I think lofs was French so there may be some underlying French that's carried and that is the county as a whole not necessarily so here we are and now to get to the cities um there were 14 municipalities with population growth over the past year but Lakeville Burnsville and Rosemount continue to experiencing the most most growth um from 2022 to 2023 Rose Mount increased by 520 a 1.9% growth anytime we're looking at population numbers it's always a year or two behind because it takes them that long to count and give you your number so you know that you have more than whatever it said um and every time I drive down County broad 42 I see that growth some days I walk and think I made a wrong turn because it doesn't look familiar there's been so much growth on that so this is projections for the largest cities in Dakota County from 2020 2050 the rose mounts there in the light blue and from I got have to look at my notes I look at the chart I'm have to ReRe the to recap so it is expected to grow from where it is right now another 40% by 2050 giving a total growth from 2020 to 2050 up 51% the current population of Rosemount is 27590 and the 2050 population is projected to be 38,7 32 so make room you have a lot of friends moving in you're going to be you're going to be pressing in on 40,000 in the next 20 25 years here's a little bit of additional data from the Met Council imag in 2050 where they are forecasting for the counties and cities um this is rosone sta for 2020 through 2050 um I'm not going to read all the numbers to you but I'll this pause so you can just kind of look and see the population the households and the employment it's population's not quite doubling households not quite but employment's expected more than double what is the employment number penny is that number of people employer number of jobs available I would look to have to look back to see how met council is defining that if I were to guess jobs in the city I would say job City not available but employees working in the city okay yeah that would be my my guess employees yeah it wouldn't account for Rosemount residents who are working in Minneapolis so now moving on to housing in 2023 the median home sale price in Dakota County was $38,000 up $5,000 from the previous year the 2023 median home sale price in Ros Mount was $412,000 $32,000 above the Dakota County I'm guessing your new construction authority too has a part of that it's the lifetime so this gra graph shows Dakota County's median household income both adjusted for inflation and in real dollars so the yellow line not adjusted for inflation shows an increase of 2.4% from 97,5 to 9,830 however the blue line on top shows that when it's adjusted for inflation this actually represents a 3.8 % decrease over the year and you don't get a pretty picture here but I couldn't use the same data source to compare Rose mountain and Dakota County because Dakota County uses we're using the ACs one year estimates but you have to have a population of at least 65,000 to be in the uh American Community survey onee estimates so we're using the fiveyear estimates so we also changed to the fiveyear estimates for Dakota County for this slide to compare and Rosemount median household income is 127 247 as opposed to Dakota counties at 105 212 do you know that R about number Compares with other cities in in Dakota County I think we've always heard that our household income is on the upper end but I just wonder if there's confirmation on that I could easily take a quick look to update it so when we do a follow-up email with the slides we can um look at that cuz that'd be a quick easy place to look it up I just don't know the number off the top of my head I would expect that some of our cities in Dakota County Egan Lakeville would probably be up there with you [Music] and there would be some that would be low I don't want to guess it which ones are low one thing just to interrupt just so you guys know I'm sending penny has given us all the slides so I can send that all around afterward plus Doug is recording it for us so I'll send the recording in case you want to share it with anyone and then I'm writing down any questions that she doesn't have the answer to right away so I'll follow up with all of that thank you so when we look at the Dakota County median household income by race and ethnicity we see that those who identify as Hispanic or Latin x black or africanamerican or some other race the three at the bottom there they have the lowest median household income and you can see at this time Asians up on time top than two or more races than white so what does it cost to live in Dakota County I'm sure that everybody could argue these numbers these are off of Minnesota Deeds cost of living tools so this is what they say that it cost to live in Dakota County so at 7173584632 that is 6.6 higher than the rest the state as a whole and when we're looking at the cost of living those who are renting are bearing the burden more so than others this chart shows the number of rental units by price from 2015 to 2023 and as you can see the number of units available under $1,500 shown in the Grays and blue here are going down each year year and the 2023 median rent in Dakota County was $1,585 up 8.8% from 2022 so looking at housing cost burden the definition that we are using for being housing cost burden is a household that contributes 30% or more of income before taxes and other deductions to housing expenses housing expenses include rent or mortgage taxes utilities and association fees so in Dakota County the percent of the household tour cost burden increased marginally over the past year to 26.7% and due tables were released this year by the American Community survey to allow was for the very first time to explore compare this percent of Dakota County households by race and ethnicity that are paying 30% or more of income on housing costs so this is broken down by those who own own with a mortgage owned units without a mortgage and then rented units so not that the bar chart shows the percent of each race that pays 30% or more for example at the very top we see that 31% % of Asians in own units with a mortgage pay 30% more of their income on housing cost if you look at the bottom lines for the rented group it appears that a substantial percent are cost burden regardless of race the overall home ownership rate is 72.7% I think I skip so home ownership rates by Ras in ethnicity the Asian population home ownership rate rate is increasing Hispanic black or africanamerican and those IA in as some other rates are decreasing in home ownership rate and the overall home ownership rate is 72.7% heny do you don't call that compares to like the rest of Minnesota that seems pretty high to me Dakota county is um higher than on home ownership rate if you looked out on the Dakota County Web site at Dakota County Community indicators at home ownership rate I believe we have a chart that that doesn't go into the race death I don't think it goes Compares by race no if you compare the overall home ownership rate for each of the counties you can look at each County separately for Homeowner buy a home ownership but it is out there and yes we are hired I mean we a lot the Metro areas in general are higher than the rest of the state but we're up there with it I'd have to look to see for sure where we are but we're up near the top so jobs and wages so now we're moving on to the socio economic indicators we're starting with data on jobs this bar chart which is from and indeed I believe uh the this place a percent of jobs located within Dakota County that had average leely W wages above 200% of federal property guidelines in 2023 that was a job that earned $60,000 per year $28.85 per hour for a family a four so looking back a few years on this chart you'll see that the percentage of jobs exceeding 200% of the federal poverty guidelines reached its highest point in 2020 and has declined a bit since continuing with wages this chart illustrates the increase in average weekly rates for jobs located within the county as well as the increase in wages needed to be 200% above the federal poverty guideline since 2022 the average weekly wage in Dakota County increased by nearly 3% the T line while the Gray Line showing that the weekly R is needed to remain above 200% of the federal property guideline increased by over 8% so moving to unemployment rates Dakota County has continuously remaining below State and National averages with the annual unemployment rate in 2023 at 2.7% the chart here provides a closer look at the monthly rates between January 2023 and September of 2024 as there's been some fluctuation over the last 18 months however the County unemployment rate has ticked back down the last couple of months at 2.8% September 2.5% in October and I don't have the more recent months I coule of those labor force participation by education level so while unemployment rates have fluctuated somewhat overall labor force participation rates continueous steady course currently at 71% bre to 16% and over in the labor force there's however a continued disparity in the labor force when you look at it by education level for the 25 to 64 population as indicated by the top two lines on this graph those with some college education or high or higher consistently demonstrate participation rates at or above 85% while those with a high school graduate level of Education or less consistently have rates below below 85% moving now to Poverty rates this this chart is looking at poverty rates for all ages displaying the percent of households below poverty at the county state and National levels the County's poverty rate which is sewn as a solid line here has consistently been much lower than the state and National averages since 2021 it is held at just about 6% and then here you see I couldn't get directly to Rosemount but I was able to get to the school district for looking at at poverty rates and so here you're seeing the poverty data for school AG children and district 196 is holding steady at a 5.5% poverty rate which is below the 6.2% county average so moving on to education we're looking at here the third grade and 8ighth grade math standards the line graph on top shows that the percent meeting or exceeding the reading standard while the bottom shows the percent meeting or exceeding the standards for Math and though both groups have seen declines over the past 5 to six years it is worth noting that Dakota County achievement rates do remain higher than about seven County Metro and the state averages in spite of them being at a number that you're probably not very happy with and not shown on this chart as there's been little to no change graduation rates in the county have steady between 86 to 87% over the past decade adult education so if we look at adult education levels the trend of rising educational tance in the county among adults 25 and older continues in 2023 56% of residents held an associates degree or higher compared to 51% in 2013 Health uninsurance the last couple of charts are regarding health uninsurance starting with the uninsured rate for all ages which in Dakota County remained at or below 4% from 2015 to 22 with a marginal increase in 2023 as indicated in the teal mine the text below the image also notes a positive change in health insurance coverage for individuals with disabilities from 2022 to 2023 the uninsured rate among this group decreased by 2% and then health and insurance by age this bar chart displays 2020 health insurance rates by age groups over the past decade the 19 to 25 age group has consistently down the highest uninsured rates however the under 6A group experienced the most significant increase from 2022 with uninsured rates rise Rising by nearly 4% and trend line is unavailable due to the numerous changes in age cohorts that have taken part over the past 10 years they keep changing how they're grouping the ages making it harder to compare so finally I'd like to highlight the uh go on to the web to show you where we do if you want to explore further it is always there available for your okay so here on the left you see the various indicators that we have that you could explore there was a question earlier about was it median household income or or was it no was home ownership rate right there was one yeah there were questions on both of those so on home ownership rate um down here at the bottom you see a comparison of the uh rates and looks like an NOA and car do us out on home ownership rates we're number three there on it but I don't have the rest we tend to look at the Metro as opposed to the whole state but um ramy's down at 59% but there's population household types home sale unit rail prices foreclosures um Public Assistance mortality rates child Mal treatment crime rates traffic safy um even down to Pavement condition water quality Etc so feel free to explore this we as new data comes out we try to keep it as up to date as we can thank you pen yeah thank you thank you [Applause]